By Raja G Mujtaba
"Everywhere there are now "threats" against our well-being which seem to demand action and yet nowhere are there commensurate enemies to go with them. Everywhere the US military still reigns supreme by almost any measure you might care to apply; and yet-in case the paradox has escaped you-nowhere can it achieve its goals, however modest."
.......a disciplined intellectual and moral culture, which accepts
without question the basic principle that the U.S. effectively owns
the world by right, and is by definition a force for good despite
occasional errors and misunderstandings; one in which it is plainly
entirely proper for the U.S. to deploy massive offensive force all
over the world, while it is an outrage for others (allies and clients
apart) to make even the slightest gesture in that direction or even to
think of deterring the threatened use of violence by the benign global hegemon".-- Noam Chomsky
The above statements are a clear reflection of the American mindset. America has no permanent friends but her interests that she has declared many a times and openly. Her friendship can turn into an active and open hostility in no given time.
America has certain defined objectives for its presence in Afghanistan; they want to dominate not only Central Asia but also to dominate China and denuclearize Pakistan. The other major objective is to defame Islam and kill the Islamic spirit, more so the political Islam which is the only living threat to capitalism after collapse of communism with the disintegration of Soviet Union.
War was turned onto Pakistan by declaring FATA as the sanctuary for the terrorists. Pakistan was prompted and forced into war against its own people on its own land; the worst scenario for any country. Today it's over a decade that Pakistan is suffering, its army has suffered casualties far greater than the entire ISAF Forces, and over 40,000 innocent civilians have been killed through induced terrorist activity and drone attacks. Had Pakistan not sided with the American agenda, today Pakistan would have been a peaceful place.
Very cleverly and through arrogance, the US has ensured weakening of Pakistan; Pakistan's infrastructure has been damaged that needs billions of dollars for its rehabilitation; besides this economically Pakistan has suffered over 100 billion dollars by suffering losses in trade and commerce. Economy is suffering, industry is closing; CIA sponsored and fanned terrorists are attacking all over the country. The US is inducing and supporting insurgencies in Pakistan. Some of the political parties have been taken on payroll that is spitting venom against Pakistan but these are also acting and supporting terrorism in Pakistan.
Now that it's an open secret that the US with all her might has had no success in Afghanistan, a face saver is badly required or else the region will burn in a fire like never seen before. America has the potential and the history that to cover up her defeats, she has embroiled the regions into wars. Bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is just one example. After her defeat in Vietnam, the US spread the war into Laos and Cambodia.
In Afghanistan, a similar situation has developed. Right from the day one, the US and her allies have not been able to command and establish their writ there, Afghans have never accepted occupation or slavery nor would they accept in the future. Afghanistan has earned the title of being the graveyard of empires whereas Pakistan is emerging as 'Empire Killer.'
For now America is building a narrative against Pakistan both for its people at home and the world at large. Her latest Hollywood series, 'The Last Resort' is a point in case. Here they show USS Oklahoma, one of the most lethal submarines in the world off the coast of Pakistan firing its nuclear missile because Pakistan is a terrorist state. The narrative is to break Pakistan by taking out Balochistan. It's no secret that the US, India, Israel, the UK and host of other countries are behind the Balochistan insurgency. The US senators and congressmen are trying to move bill in their committees to that end.
To achieve the objectives, the US and her allies are creating situation where Pakistan Army is fully deployed and committed in every part of Pakistan. Army is already in FATA, Afghan border, Balochistan, Indian Border and now they are being stretched her into Northern Areas and Karachi. By doing so they are ensuring that Pakistan has no force to counter the attack that they plan from the south.
The scenario that is being built to attack Iran is a deception; main target is and will remain Pakistan. This threat will develop after Syria operation if the US and her allies fail to do a quick job of Syria, they may move onto Pakistan even earlier. Before USS Enterprise left for the Persian Gulf, it carried out some drills off Maryland to attack two neighbouring Muslim countries that pose threat to American interests; Without naming these countries are Pakistan and Iran. Presently the carrier group is deployed in Arabian Sea off Pakistan. To this end, the statement of David Ben-Gurion, the first Prime Minister of Israel also warrants deep thinking. He said that "Arabs are not the enemies of Israel but its Pakistan," the only ideological state in the world that opposed the creation of Israel even before it got its independence. This he was referring to the statement of Mr. Jinnah who opposed the creation of Israel.
What's holding the US from attacking Pakistan is the ongoing battle in Syria. If the US succeeds there to oust the present regime then the same formula would be applied in Pakistan, to create a dissension from within for which all the spadework is done. The numbers of killings that are taking place in Karachi are alarming. MQM leadership both within and outside of Pakistan is making all efforts to draw the army into the battle and create a free for all situation.
In doing so, the US has teamed up with India for which all the rehearsals and drills have been carried out. Basically it's the Koa plan of which the first part was East Pakistan and now the second part has been launched in Balochistan. If you study the pattern, the insurgency in Balochistan is identical to what happened in East Pakistan.
It's an open secret that PPP, ANP and MQM have no loyalties with Pakistan. All of them have been and still are being funded by agencies from outside. All three are busy working against the Army, the force that provides strength to the federation; they are trying to drag army into every internal conflict that basically needs a political solution and not a military one. There coming into power is not the people's mandate but an act sponsored and supported by Washington of which the UK, India and Israel are also supporters. This can be verified by the quantum of involvement of these countries in Afghanistan. How they are operating and targeting Pakistan in every conceivable manner to destabilize it.
Like Mukhti Bahini, these four countries have taken a few Sardars from Balochistan to create an anti-Pakistan force then work through them to build a global case that would ultimately be taken to the UN for sanctions on Pakistan. It needs a quick and concentrated effort on part of all patriotic Pakistanis and its defence forces to prepare for the worst.
Here it must not be forgotten that whatever the US does, Great Britain simply endorses; she is a permanent partner in crime. What happened on 9/11 or what followed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and now in Syria. Most of conspiracies are hatched in London; London provides sanctuary to many criminals and anti-Pakistan elements both from MQM and Balochistan.
The naval armadas that are operating in Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf are formidable. Taking just the two Aircraft Carrier groups of the US, they have larger Air power as compared to Pakistan, their naval fleet is not only bigger but much more lethal than the entire Pakistan military capability; when this force would be joined by India, the UK and Israel, the power would be multiplied. Besides in any such conflicts, the GCC countries would at best not be the part of the force. Their neutrality would again be hurting Pakistan. All oil supplies to Pakistan from GCC countries would cease. The only option remains is to establish a pipeline from Iran to meet not only the gas but the oil needs also.
Presently, at any given time there are 70 to 100 warships of different navies in the region. If Indian fleet is also added to it, the number would safely go beyond 100. In addition, the US Marines have about a 2500 marines floating around. The US has at least 2 aircraft carriers present in the region at times the number increases to 3. The aircraft compliment of these carries is more than 300. When the US airpower based in Afghanistan is taken into account, the force would be more than doubled.
The GCC has provided numerous bases to the US and her allies on their lands. Most of the operation against Pakistan would be launched or supported from these bases therefore Pakistan cannot and must not count on GCC in any shape or form.
This naval buildup will block all sea lanes to Pakistan, affect a coastal landing by the marines and move into Balochistan after securing the Makran coast. For this purpose, the US has about 2500 marines floating in the area that can be augmented with more marines if required. Here it would not be surprising if India provides strong contingent of infantry to be an equal partner in this (mis) adventure.
To further complicate it for Pakistan, open hostilities from its Western and Eastern borders would be launched to keep the Pakistan Army and the Air Force pinned thus not be able to provide any resistance in the South.
Pakistan can knockout the aircraft carriers operating in the region and maybe forced to do also but sinking one of those would turn the tables and also the dimension of the war. America would react like it did after Pearl Harbour, it's a country that does not have patience nor it cares for human life; all it wants is to exert its might and authority in a most arrogant way. Hence going by the above quotes, the US would nuke Pakistan. To avert this situation, Pakistan Navy needs to be bolstered to an extent that the US does not think of any adventure against Pakistan either solo or collectively. A substantial number of nuclear submarines would stem the situation in favour of Pakistan. This fleet Pakistan Navy must induct at the shortest possible time. Also Naval Marines need to be increased by a few brigades to defend its own installations and the seafront of approximately 1000 KMs.
What is worrisome that F 16s and P3c Orions would be made useless chunk by the Americans for they can electronically ground them or jam their avionics so that these machines become no operational. If that be the case, some modifications ought to be carried out or Pakistan Air Force will have to rely on JF 17s or other Chinese aircraft that maybe in the pipeline. Likewise Pakistan Navy must go for alternative options to secure the Maritime Operations.
Another major catastrophe that's likely to fall is that all supplies that we get from Arabian Peninsula will be choked. This would completely cripple the military operation within days. To offset that threat, we need to urgently expedite not only the gas pipeline from Iran but we must also draw an oil pipeline in addition to gas. Also there is a need to build additional storages capacity to hold oil for a prolonged war. Our planners must understand that why the US is putting its pressure and not letting Pakistan establish a pipeline from there. Through this denial, they achieve two objectives; one Pakistan would crumble when runs out of oil and second Iran would be denied an alternative route to export oil and gas beyond Pakistan.
In such a scenario, Pakistan Navy becomes the key player to defend Pakistan but with its meager resources it may not be able to perform. The government must allocate substantial funds to Navy for it to bolster and expand its fleet both of surface and sub-surface war machines. What it needs to induct is nuclear submarines, frigates and marines etc. Maybe some infantry battalions from Pakistan Army are transferred to Pakistan navy and later makeup its deficiencies.
Raja G Mujtaba
Raja Ghulam Mujtaba is the chairman and founder of O.M. Center for Policy Studies, a virtual Think Tank
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