If the USA launches war in the Gulf, it may lose 1.9 trillion dollars
American experts stated several times already that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had drawn right conclusions after the US’s triumphant Desert Storm and got thoroughly ready for a continuation. However, on the wave of hysteric patriotism, American officials paid little attention to those warnings. On the other hand, resolute anti-Americanists decided that the analytical statements were kind of “indirect” PR of the US Department of State. At the same time, if America fails to defeat in a tip-and-run attack, it may get into a great trouble.
Yesterday the Committee for national security at the Public Academy of Sciences and Arts circulated its research on the problem in the American capital, Washington, DC. Russian news agency RIA Novosti reports, analysts reached a conclusion that if the USA fails to beat the Iraqi army immediately, it’s better for Uncle Sam not to wage a war in Iraq at all.
The protracted destabilization of the world oil markets and subsequent recession of the US economy will bring the super state number one back to the times of Henry Ford. And probably even further. The very war campaign and occupation of Iraq (including spending on neutralization of a partisan war) will cost American taxpayers 1.9 trillion dollars. And American taxpayers won’t put up with such a great spending. It is difficult to imagine what geopolitical consequences this failure will entail. No matter whether we wish or not, stability of the whole of the world depends on the stability and prosperity of the USA. If only the giant slightly staggers, the successful national economies of dozens of countries will collapse one by one.
What is more, no war is waged yet, but the US Administration is already spending or just getting ready to spend pretty sums of money in order not to disgrace itself in the eyes of the whole of the world. Associated Press informs, the US authorities plan to invest hundreds of millions dollars in reconstruction and modernization of military bases in Turkey (the US military command plans to use these very bases for intrusion into the interfluve of Tigris and Euphrates). This fact was confirmed by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz.
Experts say that in order to avoid this enormous spending, US military men should better to cope with the campaign against Saddam Hussein within a couple of months so that total spending on military purposes won’t exceed 100 billion dollars. However, they also say that any negative or prolonged consequences of this war (and there will be lots of them) will immediately send up the cost of the war campaign for the USA and the federal budget.
If the situation develops according to an unfavorable scenario, and the world’s oil markets fall down for a rather long period, specialists of the Committee say that recession of the US economy may last for ten or even more years. In this case, consequences of a war with Iraq will be much more than 1.9 trillion dollars. However, even the given price is easily comparable with the American annual budget. So, Americans will get a wide range of consequences from this war.
Ahtyam Ahtyrov PRAVDA.Ru
Translated by Maria Gousseva
Read the original in Russian: http://world.pravda.ru/world/2002/5/15/39/4008_Iraq.html
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