The opinions, which are represented in this article were expressed by Martin Martirosyan - the scientist of culture, and Andrey Devyatov - the sinologist (the science, which studies China). The world has split into two parts - the rich and happy and the poor and sick with the idea of struggle with injustice. The real war has started, without any clear framework, against the vague enemy. The standard to measure the wealth – “One American Dollar” - has finally received a considerable volume of the military costs ($40 billion for a start). This is the sum that does not cover the virtual spending, like it happens with Microsoft, for example, but it does cover the real costs of the weapon and its application. In the beginning the missiles were aimed at the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. One may easily guess that Iraq will be the next target - the bottomless oil reservoir (there is more oil in Iraq than in Saudi Arabia). Pakistan is on the list as well, with the only A-bomb for the entire Muslim world. Martin Martirosyan said the paper money was invented not in Europe, but in China, in 1618. The state of things in the empire was totally bad, the natural tax (grains, fabric) was added with the monetary tax. There was not enough silver and copper and so they made up the banknotes. The people rebelled against the lack of the metallic measure of value for it became even worse. The dollar is not the American money. It is the common money, the result of the economic globalization. This currency has not had any standard in the precious metals since the 70s of the 20th century. For the time being, dollars – are a huge numbers of the electronic money and a pile of green paper, 75% of which are circulated on the territory of the United States. To make the dollar crash from abroad means to undermine the grounds of the “new order” – it is the economic suicide. The globalization is coming, but the tradition is doing its best to fight for its own positions too. It would be very hard to get rid of pound sterling, Deutsche Mark, frank in dollar’s favour, they all are supported with the massive tradition. Now Europe will soon have the cashless euro. There is no tradition behind this new currency and it is doomed to the failure. So it will not be the euro, which will make the dollar crash, like the financial specialists say, the dollar will press on euro and will survive owing to the crisis.
Andrey Devyatov says the mass media is silent about the economic side of the latest session of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which took place in October of the current year in Shanghai. What was more important there? Economics, or terrorism? The main thing was the statement from the Malaysian premier, who said it was time for the countries of the Pacific Rim to think about the alternative to the dollar – the Pacific measure of value. The countries of the Pacific region produce 60% of the total Gross Domestic Product in the world; 50% of the international commerce falls on this region as well. It was not mentioned at the summit that the ethnic Chinese controlled 50% of the private capital in the Philippines, 70% - in Indonesia, 80% in Thailand and Malaysia. Andrey Devyatov thinks that the golden Yuan will easily take place of the American dollar in the Pacific settlement.
The American market is currently flooded with such producs like CDs, computer software, computer games, pop music, cell phones, credit cards and the like. There are no markets left within the United States that can have the positive yield, the accounts payable total 28 trillion dollars, the development is taking place at the expense of the inflow of the foreign investments. America’s total debt is three times as much as what they actually produce. At the same time, there is actually no inflation in the States, the bank loans are very cheap (2.5% per annum), the population does not have any savings in the banks.
In the beginning of the 20th century the Russian ruble was gold, it was the strongest currency. However, the world very soon realized that it would be much more profitable to print the paper money instead of making golden coins and then to have back both the coins and the “paper.”
Speaking about China’s huge gold and forex reserves, which is officially evaluated in the sum of $150 billion (plus the spare capital of Hong Kong – over $100 billion), then one may assume the world was given the figure of the currency reserve in US dollars only. Moreover, this reserve is being stored not in the USA, but in Hong Kong. China’s official gold reserve is not growing. In 1980 the figure was 398 tons of gold, which was changed to 392 tons 17 years afterwards. The gold reserve in the USA is 8140 tons, in Germany – 2960 tons, in France – 2546 tons, in Italy – 2074 tons.
The Yuan rate was set as stable for the coming five years (2001-2005), which means the long-term schedule for Yuan to become the reserve Pacific currency instead of the dollar’s crash. The secrecy connected with China’s gold reserve may only mean the preparation to Yuan’s new role. The Chinese are now looking for the reserves of the natural resources to satisfy the future needs of the huge population.
The views were expressed by Martin Martirosyan (the scientist of culture) and Andrey Devyatov (the sinologist).
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