A prolonged military campaign in Iraq will provoke a world economic recession. The signs are already crystal clear in the pre-war reactions of the world’s stick exchanges, which show a pronounced nervousness.
At the beginning of this week, with talk that a military campaign in Iraq is imminent, the markets reacted. In London, the FTSE-100 fell 1.09%. The DAX in Frankfurt fell 2.18%, the Dow Jones 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.9% (both USA), the Mib-30 in Milan 2%, the Ibex-35 in Madrid 1.9%, the CAC-40 in Paris 1.4%.
Experts feel that a war in Iraq will send the cost of crude spiralling, which in turn will wipe away any economic indicators of an upturn, sending the world economy back into deep recession. What the world economy needs as it makes tentative efforts to emerge from a bearish cycle is confidence. This is not what the external signals from the USA is bringing.
John ASHTEAD PRAVDA.Ru LONDON UNITED KINGDOM