The head of the Russian Finance Ministry, Anton Siluanov, said that the Americans would suffer additional losses if they impose sanctions on Russia's public debt.
Analysts expect that Washington will opt for a moderate version of sanctions against Russia.
According to Siluanov, foreign investors will be the first to suffer from the imposition of sanctions against the Russian public debt. Should the purchase of Russian government bonds be banned, foreign buyers of the Russian public debt, who have invested $25 billion in federal bonds in the last two years, will lose their revenues.
According to Alor Broker analysts, one may consider "positive," "moderate" and "negative" development. In the first case, sanctions will be expanded solely by including new individuals and entities on sanctioned lists. This option will not entail restrictions on federal bonds deals in February.
In case of the moderate scenario, according to which operations with federal bonds for non-residents will be restricted with regard to new issues only, the move is not supposed to affect the economy in general.
By the end of 2017, non-residents were holding the Russian public debt worth over $37.5 billion. In case the worst of the three scenarios becomes real, most of those assets will find themselves on the market in a fairly short period of time, which automatically implies financial losses to holders who will be forced to sell them at a lower price.
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