Today's decline in the US dollar rate on the money market is brought aboutby currency interventions of the Central Bank of Russia on the interbankmarket. Under these conditions, the fluctuation of the dollar rate will bedetermined by the behavior of the Central Bank, ruble liquidity at banksand the sales volume of export revenues. In other words, if credit ratesstart going up this week, investments in foreign currency will beunprofitable, and dealers will have to considerably reduce long positionsin foreign currency, which has taken place more than once. This opinion wasvoiced by experts commenting on today's afternoon trade, in an interviewwith RBC.However, one can hardly believe even now that the Central Bank willtolerate a dollar rate decrease below 31.50 RUR/USD. The exchange rate ismost likely to fluctuate within 31.55-31.60 RUR/USD till the end of August,though one should not ignore the fact, confirmed at today's trade, thatdealers are disposed to a rate increase and are ready to buy dollars atabout RUR31.555-31.565. If the Central Bank stops currency interventions atthe level of 31.60-31.61 RUR/USD in the near future, traders will makeanother attempt for bullish speculation. .
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