The results of today's currency trade did not surprise anyone, as traders were expecting the support of the Central Bank, but it was not rendered today. The trade demonstrated that a deficit of ruble resources triggered the activity of traders. However, the Central Bank was just observing a decrease in the dollar rate throughout the day, a specialist of a large commercial bank said in an interview with RBC. The Central Bank might be currently interested in a certain correction of the dollar rate; this is why it could enable dealers to speculate for a fall. But every one is aware that further dynamics still mainly depends not on the availability of ruble resources on the market but on the activities of the Central Bank.
So far, traders just have to continue working following a perceived downward trend. On the other hand, much would now depend on the ruble liquidity of trade participants. For example, today, ruble credit rates have been fluctuating within 30 to 35 percent. This influences dealers' disposition and makes them improve their ruble liquidity. However, traders are not expecting a considerable drop in the US dollar rate, because they realize that if the dollar rate eases back at least a little, the Central Bank will have to intensify its activities and to start buying dollars in order to hamper a significant strengthening of the Russian ruble.
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