By Jim Jones
For many, myself included I suppose, the tragic events unfolding in Ukraine have been riveting over the last couple of months. No need here to go into the sordid history of Coloured Revolutions and the CIA/NATO role in them; most reading this medium, as opposed to CNN/SKY/VOA are informed people and are aware of the manoeuvrings of the West and the associated puppet states in trying to embroil Russia in a war it doesn't want and in extending NATO frontiers right to the heart of Russia. A missile strike from Ukraine, for example, would be in Moscow in 10 minutes, leaving no reaction time and fits neatly within the new US policy of "first Strike" nuclear capability. [As opposed to the retaliatory strike doctrine of the last 40 years].
We all know what happened in 1961 when Khrushchev put Soviet Missile into Cuba because the US put missiles into Turkey. The US wasn't very impressed at all. What is not well known is Kennedy asked Khrushchev to "cut him some slack" and withdraw the missiles without reference to the US withdrawal of missile from Turkey! The US had upped the rhetoric so much, that it couldn't be seen to lose face in the public arena - condescendingly, Khrushchev accommodated.
Hold that thought of "face saving" as we explore the current Ukraine Crisis.
The US/NATO pushed the EU to pressure the Ukraine to join the EU and swing to the West. They almost succeeded four years ago with their Orange Revolution. But Russia had learnt a thing or two about the Coloured Revolutions and mounted a very successful and embarrassing reversal of the revolution and installed their own man in Ukraine who was leading Ukraine back along the Russian brotherhood line. Four years later, over $5 billion in NGO funding and a huge amount of State Department scheming and CIA covert action, the US finally got an opportunity to redress the egg on face incident that the Russians had made for them.
The US played a "background role" in this - preferring to have the EU seen as the driving force behind the Maidan. However, leaked phone calls, like that made to Cabinet Minister Aston which clearly identified the role of paid mercenaries killing both Police and protesters and later the Viktoria Nuland [US State Department] hand picking who will be in the Ukraine government and saying the EU can go get fucked - did nothing to endear the US to the EU as it came hard on the heels of revelations of extensive phone tapping of EU leaders phones etc. by the US.
Then we have the unsavoury influence of the Right Sektor in Ukraine being pushed, funded and trained by NATO and the US. Kerry, Nuland, John McCain, Mark Twain and all were seen in public and endorsing the very Right Sektor extremists that the German government was in the process of declaring criminals! Europe could see itself being plunged back 70 years with the rise of neo Nazi's, not just in Germany - but across Europe. [Remember Anders Behring Breivik and his mass killings in Norway - an ultra nationalist].
Europe also asked the question, what is the US going to lose over this? If Russia turns off the gas, Europe freezes - the economy of Europe goes down the toilet! Already Germany is losing billions of Euros in trade with Russia, France has several military deals with Russia, the supply of Mistral Class ships for one and Putin has promised follow-ons from that. Italy is supplying armour vehicles, many nations of Europe trade with Russia - so, US, what sanctions are going to hurt you the EU asks?
Germany has a growing discord there over the 70 year occupation of Germany by US forces - we see demonstrations - Yankee go home! Europe is realising that the US cares not for them, but only for US and US businesses.
Against this background, we are witnessing the separation of US/EU and a drawing closer of EU/Russia on common grounds of shared interests.
I was appalled: driven to tears by the criminal actions of the Kyiv Junta - ex facto, war crimes/crimes against humanity. The shelling and bombing of civilians [non-combatants who the Junta declares Terrorists]. The targeting and destruction of schools, kindergartens and hospitals - with the murder of 25 wounded in the hospital - shot by Junta troops! The destruction of the means of support of life - water supplies destroyed electrical installations and sanitary plants destroyed by shelling. The shooting of women and children leaving the region for shelter in Crimea, by bus. The execution style killing of civilians in a town by Junta forces who lined the people up and shot them in the back of their heads. The use of chemical weapons against civilians - chlorine gas [where is Obama's Red Line on this?]. The targeting of TV reporters in the area trying to objectively record events. I'm sure I have missed some others. I cried out from the depths of despair for justice - surely Russia would intervene; surely Russia would protect it's people like it has said it would?
And all along, that is exactly what the US has been saying too - telling the Ukrainian Junta to commit further acts of atrocity against the people who simply want true democracy in the East. To help them in this, they even get them to demonise and degrade the people there, Junta leaders have called the Russian in the East, "sub-human" - those of you as old as I am will have heard that phrase before. They are called parasites and vermin by the new Choco King Junta leader Poroshenko. Such debasing of the population makes it more acceptable to murder them and commit atrocities against a sub human species - not much higher than animals really, are they?
The provocation of Russia in this regard has been carefully stage managed by the US, intent as always to let it appear as the EU 's doing, while all the time ensuring that their people are the ones pulling the strings in Kyiv - CIA/FBI and State Department are up to their proverbial balls in Kyiv's business. Don't see the EU featuring though. The US has pushed the war monger Russian storey all through Europe - putting the fear of the bogyman in all ex Soviet states and determined to show them all how much they need NATO's protection. [In truth, the world needs to be protected from the US].
However, Russia has consistently demonstrated restraint and maturity in handling world crisis. Since the failed US lead revolution in Georgia, Russia has been seen to be talking the moral high ground from the US and their consistent lies [WMD et.al]. The lies over Georgia were exposed and eventually the EU came out and confirmed that Georgia started the war. Reluctantly, Western media has had to admit to "errors" in reporting - all of which have favoured the Russian position. Remember the incredible piece of statesmanship from Russia in pulling the war rug out from under the US feet over the Syrian Chemical weapons?!
Russia has quietly been going about cementing relationships in Europe - building "partnership' with European countries and doing so in accordance with international law and responsible, mature actions. All of which has been driving a wedge between the US and the EU. This hasn't gone un-noticed - the US cannot accept that they are not in the driving seat of a single seater any more. Goading, provoking Russia into attacking the Ukraine is how they will demonstrate that the Russia of today is what they told everyone that USSR of old was.
Putin has been smarter than they realised. Reuters today reported:
Ukrainian forces struck at pro-Russian separatist bases in eastern regions with air and artillery strikes on Tuesday after President Petro Poroshenko announced he would not renew a ceasefire but go on the offensive to rid Ukraine of "parasites".
His decision quickly drew fire from Russian President Vladimir Putin who said Poroshenko had disregarded the advice of himself and German and French leaders. Putin said Poroshenko would now have to bear full responsibility for veering off the road to peace.
Poroshenko, who accuses Russia of fanning the conflict and allowing fighters and equipment to cross the border to support the rebels, turned his back on another renewal of a 10-day unilateral ceasefire after the phone talks involving Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.
The important thing here is that Putin obtained consensus from France and Germany in a four-way dialogue. This consensus has been broken by Poroshenko, under pressure from his US handlers. The facts are obvious. What it also shows, is that once again the US has marginalised the EU and shown scant regard for the EU position.
This has now opened the door for Russia to reiterate the threat; "Putin said Moscow would continue to defend the interests of ethnic Russians abroad - up to three million of whom live in the east of Ukraine, which has been in separatist ferment since April."
By obtaining consensus to a path of peace, and seeing it broken, Moscow has now the mandate to use force IF it wants to.
The question is, does Russia want to or does it need too? That famous General of Guerrilla warfare, Vo Nguyen Giap [Incidentally, his book Peoples War, People's Army is worth reading] said, "we do not want to defeat the enemy, we simply want him to leave our country!". In this regard, the Ukrainian Junta cannot win the war in Novorussiya.
Firstly, they have completely lost the battle of the hearts and minds of the people by the brutality and atrocities that they have committed. Their transparent attempt at a Kosovo type ethnic cleansing has been seen for what it is and has made people more determined to "hold their ground". The brutality has now created generational animosity which will not be solved in our life-time.
Secondly, militarily they cannot succeed - everyday, Novorussiya is gaining in strength and skills. The skill level of the Novorussiya troops is much higher than those of the basic conscripted Junta forces and they are much more motivated than the Junta forces - they are fighting for their existence and homeland. Conventional military doctrine states that we require a 10 to 1 advantage to press a successful attack against a defending enemy. 1,000 to 1 is not enough to succeed in a Guerrilla war scenario. Look at the hiding the Yanks got in Vietnam and they poured hundreds of thousands of troops into there, used the might of total air superiority and naval bombardment etc and still got their arses kicked. Ask them how many they and NATO had in Afghanistan fighting the towel heads? [and still lost]. The Ukrainian Army has about 30,000 troops committed against around 10,000 in Novorussiya Army and many of the Junta forces are actually surrendering without a fight, handing over their gear, getting on a bus and going home with mum who came to collect their sons. Also, the Junta is bankrupt. They can't even feed their army; people are deserting and walking home because of no food and no pay.
To save face - that wonderful US terminology again; I see it is proposed that Novorussiya become a Russian protectorate! The US is looking for a way to stem the Junta's haemorrhaging.
All Russia now needs to do is open a humanitarian corridor into Novorussiya and maintain it/Police it and supply Novorussiya with what war materiel they ask for. And it can do that with the tacit approval of Europe - The US having gone a bridge too far in Ukraine. Russia can allow the Junta to bleed to death here and like Georgia before; the US will be powerless to stop it.
The US has had it's last Tango in Europe.
What is troubling is that Western analysts do not understand why Trump came to power, and why Putin can still retains it
Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning the presidential election in the country in a landslide victory
Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning the presidential election in the country in a landslide victory