Reading my previous letter, I understood I had not dwelt on the reasons why politics will blow up UK out from the EU. So, I would explain my point of view.
Strategy wants trap being placed where opponent will not have a good view.
Since the opponent is the UK, the correct place to build a trap is the referendum mechanism.
As you know, referendum is a popular pool used to decide all together how to proceed, if agreeing or not something, usually a law: all people will go and vote.
Anglo-Saxon word is not very familiar with that kind of mechanisms, due to their poll system based on a majority system: in a small cluster of people there is one senator
that wins and one that is not elected.
So, they tend to ignore the political meaning of the referendum.
Their press is saying "now the EU have a constitution, but since it must be approved nation-by-nation
with a poll, if in some country the poll loses, all other countries will do steps back on the issue".
That is the trap.
Anglo's press forgets the politic meaning of a poll in the EU countries: after a poll will decide "yes" or "not", it is hardly possible for politicians to step back. The poll counts consensus about some issue. Since politicians NEED consensus, they simply can't step back after a poll.
Latins said "vox populi, vox dei" which means "the voice of the people is the voice of God", that is due after the entire people has expressed its will, it is impossible to step back.
So, the countries where the UE new Constitution will be approved by polls, can't step back on it.
I don't know if we make some they amendments to the constitution (for example, it would be good to remove some stupid restrictions such as like the unanimity vote) in order to satisfy the popular request, but after the polls there will be some countries (those in which EU construction wins) that will decide to apply it, and integrate between themselves only.
This will reveal the fact of the "two speed Europe" where UK hates and fights, and it will result in UK going out. Or, if UK stays, the UK will not be part of the new kernel of Europe, that means the EU will be powerless.
There is a 2-case scenario: the UK make pressures to his allies to join too the new Constitution.
In this way, the UK will slow down the UE (more countries,
less speed in decisions) but also will be the ONLY country OUT of the Constitution!
At this point, UK politicians hope that since one country (the UK itself) not approved the Constitution, all others will step back. This hope aroused because they don't know the true
meaning of a public opinion poll: but after the poll, nobody of those approved it can step back.
And, in that way, UK will be out of the EU too. It seems, the king is under lock in two steps, anyway.
This is the reason because our Foreign Ministers have chosen to do a poll anyway.
Italy's Constitution permits to accept the new EU constitution without a poll, there is no need of a poll. But opting for the poll, they will be sure that nobody can step back here too.
It is very reasonable that France, Germany, Italy, Holland, Belgium, Spain and Portugal will win the polls and approve the new Constitution. After the polls, we can't step back: the Constitution or someone very close to will be applied.
In this way, almost the "kernel" of the new EU will start. Without the UK.
That means being able to detach from the USA control. It is something like chess, I think.
This is what I mean when I say "politic is a weapon".
Ivan Nikola Guerra
Rescuers found the pilot of one of the two Su-34 fighters that had collided in midair in the Far East on January 18