Author`s name Ольга Савка

Russia mourns, special services investigate reasons of the plane crashes

Two simultaneous plane crashes are possible to happen once in 5,000 years

The first black box from the crashed Tu-134 jetliner is to be decoded on Thursday morning. According to the results of the analysis, Russian special services will announce the key version of the tragedy, which happened in Russia on Tuesday, when two passenger liners crashed in the Tula and Rostov regions. It will be possible to unveil the information, if flight recorders have not been damaged in the crash.

August 26th was announced the mourning day in Russia. The mourning will last for three days in the Volgograd region (the Tu-134 was flying from Moscow to Volgograd).

According to the Vremya Novostei newspaper, if the tragedy is considered an act of terrorism, Russia is likely to experience a serious exacerbation of the situation in Chechnya. A significant change of the foreign policy is not ruled out either. “If it turns out that the Chechen terrorists blew up the two liners, the reaction will follow immediately. It will be seen in the actions of the federal authorities in Chechnya, the nationwide strengthening of security measures, Russia's sanctions against the countries linked with Chechen separatists, etc,” the newspaper wrote.

All Russian newspapers write that a technical malfunction aboard the two airplanes is highly unlikely. Mathematicians calculated such an occurrence is possible to happen once in 5,000 years.

A more radical newspaper, the Russian Currier, wrote with reference to its own source in the special services that the terrorist act is considered the main version of the tragedy. According to the newspaper, the terror act has been performed by a highly classified terrorist group. The Russian Federal Security Bureau, the newspaper wrote, does not hurry to expose the information yet. The Russian Currier wrote, only 50-100 grams of the promptly placed explosive would be enough to blast a plane. That is why the fact that there has been no explosive found on the crash sites does not prove anything yet, the newspaper concluded.

Two other versions of the tragedy are connected with a technical malfunction or a human factor. As far as the 'technical' version is concerned, the two planes were most likely fueled by one and the same brigade of technicians of the Domodedovo airport. A technical mistake would be possible to occur: a technician probably forgot to close a valve or tighten a nut. However, the two crashes happened almost simultaneously – technical problems could not appear on board the two planes at once.

One should not exclude the technical factor either. According to spokespeople for the two airlines, the two liners were piloted by experienced pilots. Flight recorders will either confirm or reject this version.

A special state committee chaired by Transport Minister Igor Litvin is currently investigating the reasons of the plane crashes in Russia.

Mathematicians join aviation experts in their objections against an 'unbelievable coincidence.' What would be the chances for two planes to crash for natural reasons? Mathematicians presume the three-minute interval. There are 364 days in a year, or 8,736 hours, or 174,720 three-minute intervals. The number of annual catastrophes happening with Russian civil planes varies between three and nine occurrences – six could be considered the average number. According to simple calculations, the chances for an air crash to occur within the period of three minutes make up 6: 174,720. Furthermore, the chances for two air crashes within this time period increase to 1: 847.974,400. Such an occurrence is possible to happen once in five thousand years, the Russian Currier wrote. A smaller, one-minute interval between the two crashes means catastrophes like that would be likely to happen once in 15,000 years.