Author`s name Michael Simpson

Migrants Attack Russia from South

Central Asian migration is a threat to the European Union
The majority of Russians believe that a person's nationality does not matter. However, Russians are fleeing from Chechnya and Central Asia out of concern for their own security. On the other, people from southern republics continue arriving in Russia.

They say that illegal immigration exists in the form of migration of cheap labor. Which is why control over employers should be tightened and the illegal migration made lawful. The Interior Ministry would solve the problem, reduce its own corruption and receive a hundred dollars for every labor card sold. On the other hand, migration problems are connected with ethnic enclaves that deal with illegal businesses. Their income allows them to hire a "cheap labor force" (Russians and Ukrainians), buy apartments and houses and fund the further growth of their colonies. The legalization of the labor migration to Russia is a perfect opportunity for large ethnic colonies (nationals of Azerbaijan, China and others) to obtain a legal base for their expansion.

When they talk about the an expedient level of migration, they say that Russia is the richest country in the world from the point of view of natural resources. However, there exists an opinion (Margaret Thatcher and other Western politicians espoused it) that the present amount of the Russian population is too large, and "stable development" would require a reduction to 50-100 million people. In fact, Russian resources are nominally extensive, but economically irretrievable. The Russian population exceeds the optimum level necessary for stable development. Russians basically live a the near-polar zone of unstable agriculture, where population density cannot be high.

Temporary migration - seasonal workers and shuttle traders - leads to economic consequences: money flows from the rich center to poor regions and internal Russian markets narrow. However, Ukrainian, Belarussian and Moldovan citizens who come to Russia to work do not differ considerably in terms of ethnicity from the Russian population. If such an immigrant obtains Russian citizenship, assimilating him or her will not lead to any conflict.

Permanent migration leads to a change in the ethnic structure of the population, which might lead to armed conflicts. Civilizational differences between the native population and the colonists are also relevant: immigrants' high birth rate will inevitably lead to an ethnic crisis. Unfortunately, if such a conflict occurs, it will be too late to improve the situation. The tragedy in Kosovo and Macedonia is a good example.

The driving force of the migration is lack of living space and resources. This  excludes the possibility of people returning to their homeland, although the colony will preserve a close connection with the mother country. ”Colony” here has its old meaning - an organized group of people that moves to new lands, keeping close ties with their home states. Nationals of southern CIS republics, China, Korea and Vietnam are setting up colonies in Russia. They are all different , and they have serious ethnic and cultural differences with the native population of Russia.

If a diaspora is criminal, it has more chances to grow and stay in another country. Labor migration is a minor issue that hides the real threat. According to the official data of the Russian Interior Ministry, there are no less than four million illegal immigrants in Russia, basically young males. Extrapolating to a normal demographic structure (women, children and elderly people) gives a figure of 20 million people. This basically means that every migrant that comes to Russia has a minimum "demographic burden" of one woman, one child and one elderly person.

Europe has repeatedly stated that open Russian borders in the south and in the southeast are a threat to its interests and security. As a result, the EU is gradually toughening its borders and the visa regime of the Shengen zone. European are states particularly toughening visa control on the borders with Ukraine and Russia. This is a crude violation of the CIS Charter, but it also provides an block between the EU and Afghanistan. Europe will never decide to legalize immigration from the Commonwealth of Independent States. The Europeans realize that the matter concerns the expansion of criminal ethnic groups.

Russia has two models of immigration policy. Russia may set itself the goal of protecting its territory and its citizens from the demographic aggression from the south - to move the Shengen line to its southern borders. This suggestion has been officially rejected.

Instead, Russian officials meet ambassadors and delegations from the Commonwealth of Independent States, who ask that Russians be penalized for their lack of love for southern guests. Russia’s southern borders are porous, criminal ethnic groups develop and grow in Russia, and Europe deprives Russia of its access to the sea. And, of course, the Russian nation will not be able to assimilate millions of migrants.

A.Orlov
Zemskoye Obozreniye
Saratov