Will Russia interfere if Kiev starts civil war?
All required rituals have been observed. The next step that the junta was going to make is to shoot themselves in the back of the head (twice, as it should be in the Ukraine). Yanukovych appeared in a company of two "associates," the Interior Ministry released a completely unambiguous statement, Churkin spoke at the UN Security Council. As a result, the term of the ultimatum expired, but the junta did not take immediate risks to use force. Actually, this was the purpose of the action.
The deployment of troops is the last thing that Russia needs now, but Russia has drawn the red line. One should not shower peaceful towns with missiles simply because the Kiev rulers are not willing to talk to the south-east.
For the time being, the situation in Donetsk continues to evolve according to the plan of the uprising: key cities have been taken under control. Each of the taken cities are of strategic importance: Slavyansk is the largest railway hub in the region, Krasny Liman - the largest sorting station, Kramatorsk - a major engineering center, Mariupol is the key to the Sea of Azov. Altogether, they create a defense zone around Donetsk and Lugansk, intercepting the road leading to the cities.
Police officers in the restive cities take the side of the uprising, local authorities recognize the Donetsk republic. Now it will be possible to hand over the situation back into their hands, although they will be receiving instructions and orders from Donetsk. Self-defense forces that were taking cities the day before yesterday would be relocated to the border area to take control of the entrances. More new units are being formed to take custody of warehouses, military units, airfields.
It seems that the scenario with the People's Liberation Army, which was considered a month ago, is being realized fully. Well-concerted actions of the groups that were taking the cities clearly belong to professionals, but it seems that these people are not foreign agents, as the Ukrainian authorities hastily sentenced too many of them to death. Are there any Russian planners among them? Maybe, there are. In the end, the Americans pour their money in, so we can help with knowledge.
The operation in the Donetsk region becomes a response to "color revolutions." This is a very interesting response from a technological and methodological aspect: how to take power in a given region under the condition of a collapsing state. The declassified film about the actions of "little green men" in the Crimea, plus self-defense actions in Donetsk have demonstrated it to those who can see how Russia could respond to "color revolutions." Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan are next - we are only showing that everything is not going to be so simple and easy.
As for the situation in Ukraine, one can say that there are two ways for the situation to develop. The first one is peaceful, relatively peaceful. If the junta does not dare to start a war, then Donetsk, with difficulty, will hold a referendum on independence and desire to live in the united but federal Ukraine. Apparently, the referendum will be held in Lugansk as well. Afterwards, this experience will start to repeat itself in other areas of the south-east, while Donetsk and Lugansk will be able to rely on Russia's help as legally independent territories.
Federalization, in Donetsk style, will be conducted throughout the south-east of Ukraine. For Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, something specific will be invented, as Kolomoysky's billions will have to be neutralized differently. Finally, all independent regions of Ukraine will be able to hold a unification congress at which they will announce the creation of the new Federal Ukraine, to which all other areas of the country will be offered to join. Those, who do not join the new state, will have the flag, anthem and coat of arms, as well as the debts of the old Ukraine.
The second option: Kiev will start a war. In this case, Russia will be forced to take the south-east under her protection, but only this one territory, and do the same. Russia should not worry whether the international community recognizes the new subject of international relations or not. The lives of millions of compatriots are much more important than a tender glance from non-traditional partners. However, in this case, the collapse of Ukraine will take place at a much more accelerated pace. The territories that will remain on the right side, will simply fail to cope with a bulk of catastrophic problems that will come falling down on their shoulders.