In addition to the famous politicians, some outstanding figures from the Chechen business have joined the pre-election race as well
Today Russia's Parlamentskaya Gazeta (Parliamentary Newspaper), the official mouthpiece of the RF Federation Council, published an analysis of candidates running for the presidency in Chechnya and their chances to win.
According to the newspaper, the actual head of the Chechen administration Ahmad Kadyrov is a sure favorite of the elections. An experienced manager who knows all problems of the republic, Ahmad Kadyrov has capabilities and resources to solve them; what is more he knows how to make arrangements with the federal center. The last fact is crucial for the Chechen population as the people are looking forward to payments from the federal budget to compensate their destroyed houses and lost property. Payments are supposed to be started in September which in its turn will become a considerable factor of the presidential elections in Chechnya.
Duma deputy representing Chechnya Aslanbek Aslakhanov is one of the candidates to the presidential position. The man is known for his ardent criticism of the methods employed in the anti-terrorist operation in Chechnya and for the highly emotional speeches in support of Chechens' human rights. In fact, people say that Aslakhanov's statements bring almost no practical effect. The deputy admitted several times that he has neither money nor team to enter the pre-election race. However at the same time he said he might participate in the elections "if he is asked to participate and if the situation changes." Now it seems that the deputy was asked to run for the presidency. Aslanbek Aslakhanov conducted negotiations with influential Chechen businessmen concerning financing of his pre-election campaign. These are head of the Alliance Group Musa Bazhayev, the Diaret Concern President Usman Masayev and others.
It is not ruled out that the deputy may quit the pre-election race for some plausible political reason. He may say he has to quit the race because of "the obviously unfair conditions", alleged falsification of the results of the voting, some pressure exerted by the present-day administration of the republic, and so on. What is more, Aslanbek Aslakhanov may need political and financial reserves once again at the end of the year: in December elections to the RF Duma will take place, and there will be a tense fighting for a seat in the Duma for a representative from Chechnya.
In addition to the famous politicians, some outstanding figures from the Chechen business have joined the pre-election race as well. They are Head of the Milan Concern Malik Saidullayev, manager of the Rossiya Hotel Hussein Dzhabrailov (brother of the Plaza Group President Umar Dzhabrailov who ran for the Russia presidency in 2000) and the Moscow Industrial Bank President Abubakar Arsamakov. It was even said that head of the Alliance Group Musa Bazhayev may join the pre-election race, but to all appearances the man has made a decision to abstain from running for the presidency so far.
Although the businessmen have huge financial resources and consolidated support of their clans, Parlamentskaya Gazeta says that the Moscow-based Chechen businessmen are not yet part of the republican establishment and have no definite political image. Indeed, Malik Saidullayev has been rendering assistance to Chechen refugees in Ingushetia for several years already; unlike other businessmen who also send humanitarian aid to Chechen refugees, Saidullayev likes to give loud and broad publicity to his actions. In general, the Chechen population doesn't treat business candidates for the presidency as actual political figures. Participation of the bigwigs in the pre-election campaign is highly likely to be a start for them to enter large-scale politics, some kind of training before the next elections.
Majority of the rest candidates hardly have chances to win support of the electorate. Many of them will probably have to quit the race after the signatures of voters colleted for the registration are checked.
Thus, although the number of candidates running for the presidency in Chechnya seems to be considerable, it turns out that there are just few actual candidates who can win the race. The Kremlin's position is one of the most important factors that has an important effect upon the elections in Chechnya. Irrespective of Vladimir Putin's statement saying that the federal authority will respect any choice of the Chechen people, it is perfectly obvious that Moscow would like to work with a leader who has proved his loyalty and demonstrated the ability to effectively work with the federal center. In other words, the Kremlin is interested in the incumbent head of the Chechen administration staying on the post of the Chechen president.
Moscow considers Ahmad Kadyrov a reliable partner who has proved to be a consistent supporter of federalism (in spite of his previous "political sins" committed on the post of a mufti in Ichkeria) and a strong manager who can handle crisis situations. Kadyrov has built a vertical of his own in the cities and towns of the republic; it helps him control the authority in Chechnya. The Kremlin certainly likes Kadyrov's firmness with respect to the vakhabit radicals and terrorists. The Chechen Interior Ministry and the special forces working under Kadyrov are active participants of the struggle against illegal armed groups. In particular, on July 31 Kadyrov's forces smashed a large group of terrorists at the outskirts of the settlement of Dyshne-Vedeno and conducted an operation against vakhabits in Argun on August 1.
If Ahmad Kadyrov is elected president of the Chechen republic (there are just few people in Chechnya who doubt that he would win the race), this will strengthen his personal positions and make conditions for further successful regulation of the peace process, the newspaper adds. Stabilization of the authority will in its turn make for stabilization of the society.