Russia and the USA will definitely have to experience a crisis in their relationship during the forthcoming years. The relations between the two countries will worsen no matter which administration – Republican or Democratic - the USA will have after the 2008 election. The USA will try to do its best to isolate Russia’s leadership and execute the “orange revolution” scenario in Moscow through its protégé. In addition, Washington will continue to undermine the energy-based sovereignty of the Russian Federation and activate the support of disintegration processes on its territory. To crown it all, the USA will try to damage Moscow’s efforts in international politics. This will be easy to achieve when Georgia and Ukraine join NATO.
The above theses have been taken from a report about USA’s possible political activities in the future and its attitude to Russia in 2006-2008. The report was prepared by experts Valentin Falin (former ambassador of the USSR to Germany) and Gennady Evstafiev (retired lieutenant-general of intelligence) and distributed in the State Duma.
The quiet revolution
The analysis of experts’ estimates and sentiments in the circles close to the White House shows that the US administration will try to regroup forces within the Russian leadership as well as in business and political elite. The transformed Russian government would then be used for the organization of a quiet version of the orange revolution in the country.
The USA may try to isolate Russia’s key political and business figures internationally with the help of compromising materials discrediting Russian officials’ names. It would also be possible to strengthen the political pressure on the Russian administration or use the factor of social protest that is currently present in the Russian Federation. Social concerns can be used for imposing certain sanctions e.g. freezing state funds on foreign bank accounts. Furthermore, the USA can win Russia's large business over to its side to provide financial support for the opposition and subdue a possible counteroffensive of governmental forces.
The energy question
The authors of the above-mentioned report described a strategy to undermine Russia’s energy-based sovereignty. They believe that the United States will try to promote alternative international energy suppliers to Russia’s export pipeline system. Washington will demand enterprises of the Russian Fuel and Energy Complex be privatized and Western companies be actively involved in it. The US administration can also try to ruin Russia’s plans of energy cooperation with China.
Washington can also develop a plan to create the pipeline system to export oil and gas from Asia leaving off Russia. In this case the USA will show great interest in post-Soviet Asian states, such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Russian experts believe that Washington will try to undermine the political authority of the Kremlin and minimize its official ties with the international community. In this case the respectable Group of Eight club may cease its existence and return to G7 again.
Translated by Dmitry Sudakov