Like a saga of Harry Potter, each episode seems to get darker and darker. Yes, there will be a light, there always is, some where down that road, but we have yet to even reach midnight, to yet hope for the light of dawn. In truth, we are still only in the late late evening and midnight, the true gloom is still off, though approaching quickly. Brace yourselves, brothers and sisters, because the roller coaster of 2011 is the biggest one yet but far from the last one.
This year is not going to be easy for us. In part, we will suffer several plagues: one, the economic collapse of China will severally lower commodity prices. This will of course hit our government budget hard, which draws most of its taxes off of oil and gas. This in turn will have a positive long term effect: the forced streamlining of the government. The defense fund is all but gone, so without major reserves, the government will have to continue with the layoffs of chenovniks, bureaucrats. Already scheduled for the ax, 200k, over the next 1.5 years, or 20% of the federal government work force, will probably grow to 30 or 40%. Many functions done by a warm body can and will be done by a computer. This and an new emphasis on business will remove several more layers of hands who want their share for doing nothing more than putting a stamp on a paper....and good riddance to the vast majority of them.
We will also face more civil unrest due to the central Asians, here illegally and to other groups. Further, the ultra-nationalists, without realizing it, are playing the CIA's hand. There will be more disruptions and riots, however, the situation will settle out. The government will compromise, making expulsion of illegals a much higher priority and while the police will still be corrupt, they will be much more fearful, as no police chief can afford a nationalist riot if he wants his pension.
Terrorism will continue on its present, CIA/MI6/Saudi funded course. That is, four times higher than that of 2009. There will be several very bloody incidents. Reprisals will escalate also, not only from Federal officials but from various other groups, such as monarchists and cossacks. Many Muslims will continue converting to Christ, which will also center more of the attacks into the neighborhoods of these converts. Of course, this will continue to push more to Christ.
Russia will also see new opportunity on the Korean peninsula to woo a unified Korea, and with China in disarray, to push out the US and become Korea's alternative to Japan or China, both traditional enemies as well as partners. Russia will also become the primary arms dealer to Korea, as well as signing deals for gas and oil, to power the rebuilding of Korea and its industrial expansion.
Russia will also be engaged in first a political and then a brief military standoff in the Black Sea with the Turks. Though a NATO ally, NATO will not step in, as two other NATO allies (Greece and Bulgaria) will also be participating. Russian participation will primarily be in the form of Navel and Air assets and some raids by marines, on Turkish coastal regions. The aftermath will be a stronger Russian presence in the Balkans, particularly with Greece and Serbia firmly in the Russian sphere and Bulgaria sliding in the same direction.
I also give us a 1 in 3 chance of having Georgia the Sequel. Maybe this time President Medvedev will not stop until he takes Tbilisi?
United States (aka Big North Korea)
Can we say roller coaster at the police state park? Yup, the US economy is about to take its next plunge and this one is going alllll the waaaaay down, folks. The first thing to fully melt down will be the collapse of the municipal bond market, which in the past 4 weeks has already seen its foundation rumbling and shaking. No this will not be pretty. We are talking bread lines, wiped out cities, mass rioting and of course a total police force clamp down. The country with the most people in jail and the most laws on the books to make sure those jails are not empty is about to expand that little industry five fold.
Yes, the work camps will be churning with Chinese style factory slaves, basically, if you are discontent and protest or to poor to pay the ever growing and multiplying taxes and fines, you will be put to productive labour, what other nations might call slave labour, but what nations like China, N.Korea and soon the USA, will call "its human advantage".
At the same time, the total disintegration of the Mexican state will fully spill over into the border regions of the USA, especially into Texas. Murder rates already extremely high will only grow. When Texas moves to close its borders, the Federal American government will ban them and will instead demand that the land is off limits to citizens. That along with the attempted seizure of the right to control air quality, and thus industry and economics, something the US Federals have threated that if they do not get control of, they will close the Texas economy, will finally push this former republic to become its own Republic, again.
Will this be peaceful, oh hell no, the American Federal are more than happy to exterminate to their black void of a heart's content to make sure everyone stays in their claws, especially their most industrialized and resourced state. There Will Be Blood, as the movie title goes and the Texans will fight, especially when the arrests starts. The only hope of the Republic of Texas will be to see just how discontent the rest of the Confederacy is.
As for the Republicans, well, they'll sell out, but they will make sure to show their bonifieds by making us their enemies at every opportunity. After all, the Americans need a boggy man. With luck, Russia will pull out its investments from the Big N.Korea of N.America and as the 4th largest investor that will hurt.
When the war in Korea finally erupts, the Americans will also play a roll, though not such a big one, especially since they are bankrupt. In truth the unification of Korea, which will happen this year, will be the straw that drives the Americans out. By the end of the year, Korea, the unified Korea, will conclude a "respectful" agreement to send the Yankees home. Japanese will be out in the streets to make sure the same happens there.
This will be the first major steps back for the dieing empire, but they will not be the last. Rome, er DC will be to busy trying to keep the Mexican civil war from fully exploding in the streets of Phoenix and San Diego, the Texas from being free and the South from rising.
Well boys, the ride was fun but its over. That real loud rushing sound? That's the ground coming at you. Your property bubble is finally going to burst and with the Americans going to hell, with China collapsing into depression and social unrest, with Europe staggering all around, no one needs the oil from the tar sands, to expensive. Same with most of the rest of the drilling. That means Calgary and Edmonton are in for a hell of a property crash, as without oil, most of those new citizens and residents will be running home.
When Hell is just not enough, might as well get a goodly taste of the Devil in Mexico. Between communists in the south, the Islamics recruiting, mass gangs and Cartels now out to over throw the governments, generals acting as dons, Saint Death devil worshiping all over, Mexico is done.
However, I am surprised it did not happen this year, though I suspect all the billions the Americans are pouring, billions they never had and never will, kept this at bay for another year. But folks, time is up. Mexico is done and the government can not even control small enclaves.
Revolution, coups, all out war, that is all that's left for the most failed state of the Western Hemisphere..
Of course all of this will pour into the US and there will soon be strong terrorist and militant actions by these very players, to break loose the rest of the SW. Sensing that the Federals will not help them, those US SW states, with the exception of Mexifornia, will begin strong state level and vigilante reprisal attacks, turning the whole zone into one long running gun battle. Now there is an action vacation.
Castro will finally discover there is a God and he has not been a good boy (Castro that is). Raul will step down. A popular nationalistic, but still socialistic government will take over, in a peaceful hand off. Cuba's economy will start to recover, but it will not be the American mafia play ground it was. However, the Cubans in southern Florida are going to start flying the Cuban flag and demanding autonomy for Cuba Del Norte, real quick.
What can one say, with American gasoline consumption on the decline since 2006 Venezuela is going to have massive problems come 2011. As the US stock and bond markets fall down the black hole of insolvency and US industry, what's left of it, drags to a stop, Venezuela is going to find itself without 1. a customer and 2. a boggy man.
In the end, Venezuela is going to be facing both a civil unrest of the masses of poor, whose promises have gone unfulfilled and what's left of the middle class who want the Marxists out.
What can we say? The B in BRIC is looking like its crumbling again. The banks in Brazil are heading down and that's about the extent of it. Financial implosion is the name of the game and with it the general economy of the communists in power now. The central bank is already raising the deposit requirements and the rates, as several major banks are teetering on the brink. With the US and Chinese collapse and the fall in commodities, at least the temporary fall, Brazil is going to go through a heck of a ride....nothing in comparison to its far northern customer, but still a ride.
In a two words: collapse, war or maybe more likely war and collapse. Argentina's economy is in the gutter and the Falklands are looking awfully nice again. Sure they made noises all year long but they are now pretty sure that the US will back stab the UK and the UK itself just announced that it will be cutting its military in half, so while the UK burns this summer in protests and economic collapse, the Falklands and all the oil around them, are going to find new owners, whether they like it or not.
Well, what can be said, Japan will do what it has done for the better part of the last 20 years: it will struggle through, trying to keep its endless recession from getting worse. The socialists in power will further muddle Japan's foreign policy and will keep tension with Russia high instead of working on mutual economic gains.
War, war is on the menu. It will be bloody, hard and short. Both sides will continue up the anti until the South oversteps and the North responds with more deadly force, but this time not on the islands but with artillery barrages along the border. The South will respond with massive air bombardment. The North will launch itself into the fray, knowing that its resources are short and quickly discovering that China is not standing behind them, while Russia will close the borders.
Seoul will be all but destroyed, first with a bombardment of conventional arms, then with the loan atomic bomb and with the destruction of the dams up river. This will bring about international condemnation and the Chinese will further back off, sealing their own borders.
The Americans will be forced into the fight, even as their own economy is collapsing and will find themselves only half heartedly supporting the South, primarily with ammunition and parts, which they will also be getting from Russia for their Russian equipment.
In short order, the North's own military leadership will dispose of the political leadership and end the loosing war.
Well folks, you can only out print the Federal Reserve for oh, so long, before it is, oh so long and the Chinese are there. With their currency off of the world trade radars and with most of the Anglo elites neck deep in China and covering for them, is it any wonder why no one, well almost no one, is noticing the Chinese tidal wave roaring in? With 64 million elite apartments empty, whole cities built pointlessly, worthless investments galore and an industry that is built not to make profits or even cover their costs but to keep the peasants employed and out of the streets, its an economic tsunami that will even make the wack jobs running American and the UK look sane.
But hay, this should be "interesting times" for the Chinese indeed. Of course, what this will mean for their absolutely addicted and broke junkies, the Americans, or those who make their living supplying them with raw resources: Australia and Brazil, should also make for interesting reading.
By the end of the year expect China to clamp down and shut down, after all word of massacred protesting peasants just doesn't look good.
Israel is going to have a hot war on their hands, this year. First, with Brazil and Argentina both declaring recognition of the Palestinian terrorist state, this will put pressure to fight a real war. The war itself will initiate from Hamas, the radicals who just do not give much of a damn about how many Lebanese die for their Jihad. As Israel strikes back against the missile barrages and cross border attacks, it will also face increased pressure against it from the Palestinians. The Americans will give lukewarm support at best.
The key player who will escalate this will be the Turks, with Erdagon dead set on a military confrontation. He will get it, first at sea and the air and then with Turkish soldiers coming into Lebanon. The war will quickly escalate, with Turkey's own unstable internal and external politics playing a direct roll.
Israel will take severe damage on its border areas, however, there will also be mass casualties in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian areas. Gaza will catch the worst of it and may see direct indiscriminate artillery barrages by the IDF. Surrounding Arab nations will be rocked by fanatic protests, when their governments do not get involved, which will also bring down extreme crack downs and blood baths on the radicals from various kings and dictators bent on staying in power and not bringing themselves into the meat grinder.
Russia, due to the Turkish involvement and that of the Greeks and Kurds, will come out as the main Israeli ally, coming firstly out against the Turks and then being drawn in against the rest of the Islamics. Yes, Russia will loose a lot of influence with the Islamic Arabs but will gain immensely with the Orthodox Christians and other Christian groups, as well as the Jews.
The minority rulers of Syria, will also start to back off Hamas, not wishing to be drawn in and will be busy exterminating the radicals at home who will try to over throw Basher.
Lebanon is set to burn. Hamas, first backed by Iran and Syria and Turkey, will initiate a large scale war with Israel and will attempt, backed by the Turks, to come directly into power. Of course the aim will be to drive out the Christians and the nominal Muslims, which in itself will spark a low scale war. When the Turks arrive to "aid" Hamas against Israel, this will be seen as an attempt at the recreation of the despised Ottoman Empire. The Christian/liberal Muslim elements will go into a full partisan warfare mode, backed by Syria, which, while suppressing its own fanatics, will be doing everything it can to make sure its former oppressors do not put down deep roots.
Total collapse. It will begin with the ever more furious withdrawal of one NATO partner after another, as casualties mount. Finally, the Americans, having started a war with Iran and facing their own internal collapse and fighting with the Republic of Texas and the Mexican cartels, will be forced to withdraw their own military from that wrecked region. The withdrawal will turn into a panic and hundreds of billions of dollars of equipment will be left or destroyed in place, with the emphasis on just getting the troops out. This will be the final moral blow to the dieing and retreating empire. As for Afghanistan, Khorazai will not last through the end of the year and will run off to Iran and asylum. The country will descend into full scale civil war that will grind on for another generation.
Iran will have a roller coaster year of its own. It will face at least a partial attack by the Americans, desperate to drum up public opinion at home and keep the US from disintegrating. However, events in Koreas, Israel and finally at home as well as in Mexico, will make this a half hearted attempt that while doing damage will be far from fatal. The Iranians will over react and bomb the various Arabs in the Persian Gulf. So while the US will exit quickly enough, the Arab states and Iran will be involved in an on again off again missile and air campaign against each other. This will of course drive the cost of crude sky high, which in truth will benefit all parties involved, just not the peasants who will have bombs falling on their heads.
The Regime will face further discrediting from their lost proxy-war in Israel and will face growing student opposition and demonstrations, which will also be suppressed with extreme violence.
Saudi Arabia will find itself drawn into the American initiated and exited conflict with Iran. In many ways, this will look like the later years of the Iraq-Iran war, where missile and plane bombardments were the norm and ground forces played less and less of a roll. The Saudis will also be faced with growing insurgencies from their own Shiete and will respond with genocide. Luckily for the rest of the world, by the second half of the year, this will draw away most of the Jihad resources of this snake pit and will give people around the world at least some breathing room.
Serbia will find itself first in popular revolution, come spring time, with the EU/NATO whores who run that country fleeing for their lives, as popular outrage grows at their pandering and whoring to those who murdered innocent Serbs and now for their steps in recognizing the Islamic goblin pseudo-state of Kosovo. The Radical Party, as well as other elements, to include the Monarchists will seize power and Serbia will start to steer towards Russia. This will not bloom fully until after the Greek coup and take over by its General Staff and its own growing alliance to Russia.
Serbia will be the pharaiha of the SE Europe, to the ruling elites, though the masses of peoples, in neighboring countries, whose own dreams and aspirations have been crushed by their own Judas elites, will look up to the Serbs as idols. For this reason, the number of terror attacks and assassinations, sponsored by the EU and US will grow throughout the year.
There is a very good chance, with the US/UK dieing, and a NATO unwilling to bleed for Muslims, particularly by the French and Germans, that Serbia will regain Kosovo, expelling the Albanian occupiers. This in turn will cause a general collapse of
The sick man of Europe is on its death bed. With a deficit as bad or worse then Greece's, with some hundred old folks a day dieing from the cold in the worst winter in its history, with one in three families having to choose between feeding themselves and heating themselves, the UK will find itself in very serious waters, this year.
First will come the mass riots and demonstrations as the right of center government tries to bring the insane spending down to within normal means. The Student riots of last December were only a foretaste. The civil unions will close the cities down with critical supplies blockaded, till the military is called out and bloody clashes ensue.
At the same time, the British National Party will be ruled illegal and its leadership, to include its Euro MP will be arrested and imprisoned. This in turn will start a low grade civil war by the BNP who will now see no civil or political course left to them. The Islamics will also increase their activities and much of the low grade civil war will be between these two groups and against the authorities as a whole.
Immigration out will skyrocket, as experts and even farmers flee. Interestingly, many will head towards Russia, now that the UK business community has gotten over its Russophobia.
The final blow, that will bring about governmental collapse and at least a short term of absolute anarchy, will be the total loss of the Falklands to Argentina.
In short, the majority of the world will suffer economic catastrophe, led by the final collapse of the US and UK and the economic depression of China. Smaller nations dependent upon these three: such as Venezuela, Brazil, Australia and others will see themselves driven to the edge or at least to their knees, though none will fall over the cliff.
Other nations, such as Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, South Africa and Mexico will face their final Armageddon, becoming nations in name only (Somalia is already just that). Depending on how hard the US/UK land this year, they may just join this august list.
Finally will be a series of wars:
Argentina vs UK, where Argentina will, with minimal conflict take the Falklands
Israel vs Hamas and Turkey, a war of mass civilian casualties and as usual, little real results.
Turkey vs Arab partisans, Kurds, S.Cypriots, Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbian mercenaries and finally Russia. This will end in a Turkish defeat and the military coup of its Islamic government.
The Koreas, where South Korea will finally enact a unification of the peninsula under its rule.
Somalia will see attacks by various world navies and invasion by Ethiopia and Kenya.
Afghanistan will finally find resolution of a sort, with the total withdrawal of foreign troops and a renewed bought of anarchy and civil war that will last into the next decade or more, with India, Russia, Iran and Pakistan making sure that no one clan or tribe comes to dominate that living hell.
A war in the Persian Gulf will also grind slowly. Started swiftly by the dieing American Empire, which itself will quickly withdraw, the Gulf States will be caught in a prolonged state of conflict, raking in the riches from the price of oil, while their peoples bleed and die.
Finally, the US itself will more than likely descend into a civil war with the newly minted Republic of Texas and possibly the old Confederacy, as well as various cartels of defunct Mexico.
The article appears in full on the author's blog, Mat Rodina
Representatives of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation commented on the state of affairs in the Sea of Azov
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club that Russia will never initiate military actions, including with the use of nuclear weapons