Most important events, which the economic situation has in store for 2008, can be outlined already now. The prerequisites of the majority of biggest economic events in the New Year 2008 were formed during 2007.
The mortgage crisis and the danger of recession in the U.S. will most likely become one of the major global factors to determine the development of the world economy. It means that the year 2008 will see the further reduction of interest rates in world’s leading countries. At present moment, the majority of financial market members unanimously believe that the Federal Reserve System will reduce the interest rate to 3.0-3.5 percent during 2008 (it was reduced from 5.25 to 4.25 percent in 2007).
The reduction of the interest rate in the USA will give more freedom to the European Central Bank and other central banks. The situation may play to the benefit of the U.S. dollar which may start growing against basic currencies.
The upcoming presidential election in the USA will become the second most important event in the world economy. A possible change of priorities of US-led policies will lead to serious changes on international markets, on the market of oil first and foremost. There is every reason to believe that the resignation of the George W. Bush’s administration, which defends the interests of oil corporations, will make countless profiteers sell their oil-linked investments. If Democrats come to power in the USA, they will inevitably raise the issue to withdraw the U.S. troops from Iraq. The entire long-term trend on the oil market will change simply because of such talks.
The growing prices on food, which could be seen worldwide in 2007, will be the third most important factor of the world economy in 2008. The ongoing rise in the living standard and well-being in such countries as India and China will not leave any chances for the world market of food to stabilize.
In Russia, the economy will fall under the influence of the ongoing rise of consumption. The growing well-being and the consuming activity of the Russian population lag behind the general economic development of the nation. The growth of the Russian GDP is expected to slightly decrease this year, but the consuming activity of the population will most likely reach its peak.
The growth of internal consumption perfectly boosts the development of the national industry. However, foreign trade indexes of the Russian economy will start to decline during the coming several years. The imports are expected to grow, whereas exports will most likely be cut.
One does not have to expect any significant breakthrough in Russia’s high-tech industry either. Nanotechnologies, declared to be one of the main priorities of Russia’s science, are still far from their practical use in everyday life. The state of affairs in nation’s aircraft-building leaves much to be desired too. For example, it took Russia many years to develop and build SuperJet liner. Independent experts say that the new plane, which has not been put into operation still, is morally outdated and noncompetitive on both home and foreign markets. Brazilian or Canadian aircraft makers spend not more than two or three years for developing similar models.
Translated by Dmitry Sudakov