It has been already a month since the moment when Cuba and the rest of the world found out about Fidel Castro’s severe illness. It is now possible to sum up the results brought by the news about the ailing Cuban leader.
Fidel Castro is recovering at the moment. However, no one is certain that the situation in Cuba will remain as it was before. Moreover, possible changes are not likely to revise the results of the Cuban revolution.
It is an open secret that the USA has been a staunch champion of dramatic changes on the Island of Freedom for several decades already. Recent interviews and statements made by politicians of the two countries in connection with Castro’s illness give a clear picture of Washington’s concerns regarding its revolutionary neighbours.
As it turns out, no matter what changes may happen in Cuba after Fidel Castro’s inevitable death, his people want to interact with the USA on equal terms. The White House and the State Department stand strongly against such a possibility. Many US top officials harbour an illusion that Cuba’s return under the wing of the US foreign policy will become a key point in the return of “good old times” when Latin America was considered the USA’s backyard.
Nevertheless, the Cuban political regime continues to rely on its unique demonstrative independence and opposition to the powerful neighbour. It seems that Venezuela could easily push Cuba and Fidel into the background to become the leader of the anti-American resistance in the Western hemisphere. On the other hand, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez derives his political strength and inspiration from the image of invincible Fidel. Chavez was the first politician pictured by the bed of the recovering Cuban leader.
It would also be incorrect to believe that economic difficulties have reached their highest point in Cuba. Many observers believe that the crisis caused with a dramatic change of priorities in the field of foreign politics has been overcome with the economic help of Venezuela and China.
Many think about the influential Cuban diaspora in Florida. Washington can use it to launch the creation of the “new democracy” in Cuba.
Fidel’s ardent adversaries say that young people do not wish to die for anti-communist propaganda. Cubans continue to escape from their native island, of course. However, they do not run for the glorious victory of people’s sovereignty. They are simply seeking a better life.
Let’s imagine that the US administration succeeds in the establishment of the new regime in Cuba. In this case US special services will have to take great efforts to intensify the protection of the US-Mexican border and close Florida from hundreds of thousands of Cubans willing to get acquainted with the “benefits of American democracy” as soon as possible. As for the possible fight for power in Cuba, the victory will most likely belong to the new generation of Cuban officials and politicians.
Translated by Dmitry Sudakov
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