Russia and Iran held talks in Moscow on 20-21 February. The main topic of discussion was Iran’s nuclear program. As is well known, Moscow has offered Tehran a joint business venture on uranium enrichment. Iran has not ruled out such a link-up, but at the same time has not rushed to take up the offer.
People still talk about possible military action being taken against Iran. Certain experts believe that it is within Iran’s power to destabilize the whole of the Middle East.
Terrorist bombers are just one of the unconventional forms of war being taken against the USA. Besides this there are many other means of attack at Iran’s disposal.
In the event of an attack by the USA, Iran would give a carte blanche to fighters of the Hezbollah terrorist group and also to workers of the Ministry for Intelligence and Safety.
Iran’s intelligence service remains one of the most sophisticated in the Middle East. When the monarch was in place in Iran with the active support of the USA and Israel, one of the most powerful secret services in the region, SAVAK, was established. After the revolution many SAVAK agents, who received training at the Central Intelligence Agency, came under the jurisdiction of the new regime. These agents are able to coordinate the activities of Hezbollah militants and Iran’s intelligence services and as a result the USA could suffer heavy casualties if any action is taken.
Iran can also resort to kidnapping people. As before, the target of abductions would be Western diplomats, workers of Western non-governmental organizations and tourists. Iran will protect its state’s interests and Iranian embassies and consulates all over the world may take similar action; murders and kidnappings. In the 1980s and 1990s Iranian Special Forces killed more than 100 dissidents in Germany, Turkey, France, Pakistan and the UAE. Analysts at the Stratfor agency believe that similar action will be taken in the near future against the USA.
Iran is able to take action aimed at damaging the USA’s situation in Iraq. Iran can appeal to Shiites, who are occupying the southern territories of Iraq, to attack coalition forces. Possible targets are industry and infrastructure in the Middle East with ties to the USA.
All the attacks will be carried out by Islamic groups with no direct links to Tehran. Iran has much to lose; its political system, resources and territories. In any case, it is more than likely that the conflict will be able to affect states that at the current time support neither the USA nor Iran .
Translated by Michael Simpson