The launch of the Bushehr nuclear power plant expected, which took place on August 21, greatly increases the probability of attack on Iran. The military and political representatives of Israel have repeatedly warned that the launch of the Bushehr nuclear power plant may cause an Israeli strike.
Tel Aviv seriously believes that Iran could develop nuclear weapons based on the capacity of the facility. Israel fears an Iranian threat is not accidental. For the past five years, President of the Islamic Republic Mahmoud Ahmadinejad keeps making threats to destroy Israel.
A serious concern regarding the development of Iran's nuclear program is expressed by the international community. In June of this year, additional sanctions were imposed on Tehran for the refusal to stop enriching uranium. However, they did not stop the implementation of the nuclear program.
Therefore, the risk of causing a military strike on Iran is more relevant than ever. The U.S. is trying to keep Israel from the immediate reaction to the launch of the Bushehr plant. According to The New York Times, Barack Obama administration was able to persuade Israel not to attack Iran within the next year. They said that during this time Iran will not have time to build its nuclear weapon.
However, Mossad experts believe that this Islamic state is able to acquire it before the end of this year. And that means that nobody, not even the U.S., can guarantee that its ally Israel does not start a preventive war.
What are the prospects of a possible conflict and when it might happen? Pravda. ru asked the experts Avigdor Eskin and Vladimir Khrustalyov to answer these questions.
“Strike on Iran is feasible,” believes an Israeli political analyst Avigdor Eskin. “We see that Iran continues to threaten us and move towards creation of nuclear weapons. But this attack should not be tied to a specific event, the launch of the Bushehr plant. Theoretically , this could happen any time .
As for the strike on Iran, it will have a sobering effect, like a belt on an unruly child. They still have nothing serious to oppose against us. It is one thing to destroy Israel in words, like Ahmadinejad says; another thing is to put this into practice. First, Iran is too militarily weak to reflect our impact, and secondly, the Iranian people, except for a small group of fanatics, are not ready to fight against us. The Iranians are well aware that Israel is far away and have not caused any harm to their country, and Ahmadinejad's regime is provoking us.
From a practical point of view, everything is ready for an attack. Moreover, such countries as UAE and Saudi Arabia, fearful of Iran, are urging us to attack and if anything happens they are even willing to provide our planes with the air corridors for the passage into Iranian airspace, “concluded the expert.
Here is the opinion of Vladimir Khrustalev, an expert on nuclear technology of the Maritime State University named after Admiral Nevelskoy: “Regarding the possible strike on Iran, the Israelis are in a position to seriously suspend its nuclear program, even without U.S. assistance. Israel has everything to do it.If we talk about the timing of the attack, the decision on this can be made very quickly, for example, after receiving some additional intelligence data. Israel has not only necessary military equipment, information and personnel for planning and conducting successful raids, but also the determination of the political leadership to take such a decision, if necessary. The question is the price. And it can be rather high. Iran may have big surprises for Israel. The Iran-Iraq war in 1980s showed that the level of organization of defense planners in terms of reducing bureaucracy in this type of the armed forces is head and shoulders above Iraq. In addition, we should not forget about the asymmetrical impact. I mean not only medium range ballistic missiles such as Shehab, but also short-range missiles located in Lebanon, on the territory controlled by Hezbollah.
Another thing is that the strike is discussed in conjunction with the launch of the Bushehr plant. But the Israelis themselves understand that this object has no serious military significance. Yes, with the help of its reactors, in principle, it will be possible in future to obtain weapons-grade plutonium. But the big concern here is not the Bushehr nuclear power plant, but the heavy water reactor (purely Iranian offspring) at Arak under construction.
However, in my opinion, it is much easier to obtain materials for nuclear weapons production building on existing capacity. I mean those few thousand centrifuges launched in recent years.
And those who wish to inflict such a strike will have to take into account these circumstances. After all, Iran already has considerable reserves of low-enriched uranium, which can be enriched to weapons grade again with the help of these centrifuges.
On the other hand, there is another way to impede the implementation of Iran's nuclear program: the attacks on scientists. And judging by the suspiciously high mortality rate among Iranian scientists, secret services of the countries hostile to Iran have already achieved some success.
There is another way. Itis the destruction of objects producing components for the Iaranian nuclear industry, for example, bearing, steel and other plants. There a many such facilities in Iran and it complicates the operation. In this case, the resources allocated for the strike would have to be spread thin.
However, I will note that this is likely to lead not to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program, but in the best case scenario to the technical pause. First, in the case of bombing, Iran would have an excuse to withdraw from the NPT. Second, it will not be possible to eliminate the scope for the production of nuclear weapons; it will only damage the industrial base for some time. Moreover, Iran is capable of moving uranium enrichment to the weapon grade to various caves, and it will not be so easy to learn about their exact location. They will be able to take intermediate stocks of raw materials to the undercover warehouse because the country is big enough.”