Sooner or later North Korea will either declare it holds nuclear weapons or report successful testing of a nuclear device
Really sensational news (it is rather scary at the same time) was reported from Vienna yesterday. North Korea will officially declare itself a nuclear power in six weeks. This will happen on the anniversary of North Korea establishment as a country, on September 9. This means an end to all conjectures about the question whether North Korea holds a nuclear bomb or not. Yes, it holds it, and this fact seriously changes the alignment of forces beyond the Far East.
Russia's news agency RIA Novosti learnt at the IAEA secretariat that North Korea was preparing to officially its membership to be among the countries belonging to the "nuclear club". A spokesperson for the International Atomic Energy Agency said he learnt the information from diplomatic circles.
Pyongyang will be declared a member of the "nuclear club" irrespective of the fact that recently the USA made several attempts to meet it half-way and was even ready to give written guarantees stating it would provide economic and energy assistance to North Korea.
A reaction from North Korea's neighbors to the news followed immediately. South Korea is especially concerned about the problem, as it treats the intention of the northern neighbor rather seriously. South Korean experts say that Pyongyang may announce joining the "nuclear club" on July 27, the 50th anniversary ending the Korean War. However, experts also mention later dates, September 9, when North Korea celebrates its establishment as a state and October 10, the day its Communist Party was formed. However, some South Korean experts say that sooner or later North Korea will either declare it holds nuclear weapons or report the successful testing of a nuclear device. They add that one of the holidays celebrated in autumn is the latest term when this may happen.
It makes sense to suggest how the situation may develop further. The problem is that the foreign policies of Pyongyang and Washington are rather unpredictable. If at least one of them proceeds to increase tenions, the situation may become catastrophic.
The USA cannot deliver preventive attacks from the air, as all North Korean enterprises supposedly dealing with production of nuclear components are carefully concealed or located underground. What is more, to all appearances, the US special services are unaware where such enterprises may be situated. It is unlikely that North Korea has nuclear reactors only in Yonben. If the country already has a nuclear weapon, it may attack American army bases in South Korea and Okinawa in response to America's air raids.
To tell the truth, this is the gloomiest scenario according to which the situation may develop. Japan, South Korea and China won't let the USA use military force in this situation. These countries, Russia should be included here as well, will be the first to suffer if military operations break out. So, it is very likely that the parties will keep on searching for a compromise. Being aware of its political triumph, Pyongyang develop new claims that may seem more inadmissible to Washington. And the American capital, in its turn, will reject the claims with a view to save face. Walking along the closed loop may last for a long time. What is to happen when at least one of the parties gets tired of it?