This is an American project where Georgia and Ukraine perform the key roles
Alexander Chachia was born August 1, 1958 in the Abkhazian city of Ochamchir. In 1981, he graduated from the philosophy department of the Moscow State University; within 1982-1991, was employed in the Georgia popular schooling system and held the position of deputy minister for education. Alexander Chachia resigned from the position in 1991 in remonstrance against the official line of the Georgian Government. In 2000, he established party Ertoba (Unity). Candidate of philosophic sciences and doctor of political sciences Alexander Chachia is now the chairman of the public organization Samegrelo People's Movement.
The expert says that the idea of the Ukrainian and Georgian authorities to revive GUUAM is dubious. These plans meant to undermine Russia's influence on the territory of the former Soviet republics may be a success only if Russia sticks to the same line it has been doing within the past years. Russia is still absolutely sure that nobody will come to the post-Soviet territories and former Soviet republics will again seek unity with Russia. It was ten years ago that it was clear for the first time the line was mistaken. GUUAM is just a method to force Russia out of the post-Soviet territory. This is an American project where Georgia and Ukraine perform the key roles. However, the project is unlikely to be effective, as both countries and other GUUAM members are dependent upon Russia in the energetic sphere.
It is frequently said that Russia may introduce world prices for energy resources sent to CIS. The Georgian economy has been in collapse for a rather long period already, and consequently world prices for energy resources will not seriously affect the economy. But this measure may be disastrous for the people's living conditions. Today, Georgia buys gas from Russia at a privileged price of $60 per one thousand of cubic meters and sells it to the population at the price of about $150 per one thousand of cubic meters. Many people make fortunes by these speculations with the Russian gas; these speculations also help form a part of the Georgian budget. Raising of prices for the Russian energy resources may be smooth if the Georgian Government debars intermediaries from distribution of the Russian gas.
The Russian factor must be obligatorily taken into consideration to carry out some plans in the Georgian economy. America as a rule grants credits to the country, and this money immediately disappears. The US has never participated in investment projects in Georgia. Georgia's debt to the US is over $2 billion, but there is no enterprise or agricultural association set up with money provided by the US.
Now the US and its NATO partners provide money for building new military bases with aerodromes and developed infrastructure in Georgia. These projects do not concern the national economy of Georgia and will not improve people's living conditions. The US appropriated $60 million of aid to the Georgian army. But $52 million of the sum will be paid to American instructors working at these bases, spent on making good living conditions for them. And just $8 million will be spent on Georgia's needs. Being absolutely helpless to improve the national economy, the authorities employ outrageous expropriation methods; they arrest people who own enough money. At that, the authorities extort money from these people in exchange for their release. This measure has helped to replenish the budget this year. The authorities are sure that it is impossible to have fortunes in the poor and ruined country. But it is the court that must decide whether people got their money honestly or not. This is not the right way of cooperation between the authorities and businessmen when the latter must one day give their money not to be put into prison. But the US ignores these disorders in Georgia.
It seems that majority of the poor Georgian population approve of these Bolshevik methods, including the expropriation, or at east they allow these methods. At first, this propaganda had a positive effect upon making the image of the “people's power.” It was said the authorities took money away from cheaters to give it back to the people. But the Georgian people never got the money and doubted the importance of the measure. For the time being, everything is being denationalized in Georgia. A reforming of the Georgian education system is really dangerous for the population: a great number of free schools are to be closed; 60 per cent of kindergartens are to be closed too; the number of departments at the Tbilisi State University is to be reduced from 23 to 6. Teaching of the Georgian language, Georgian literature and history, the subjects essential for the national morale, is on a steady decline now.
People's attitude towards the Zhvania-Saakashvili team has always been negative. People realized the politicians were Shevardnadze's fosterlings. However, the Georgian people supported the team when it was clear that Saakashvili could dethrone Shevardnadze.
This is outrageous that Saakashvili's team is exterminating the Georgian national morale. With this purpose they falsify the history: now Russia is demonstrated as a historic enemy and Turkey as a centuries-long friend.
Break-up with Russia is catastrophic for Georgia. Today, Russia is the only possible market for Georgian goods. Abut one million of Georgians live in Russia where they earn money and then send it to Georgia to support their relatives there. If Georgia wants no relations with Russia, the Georgian authorities thus reveal that they will not settle the Abkhazia and Ossetia conflicts.
Alexander Chachia mentioned at a round-table discussion on the Russia-Georgia relations held in Moscow that there was no adequate opposition in Georgia. We often consider political parties or leaders oppositional only because they are not in power, he says. In Georgia, there is no oppositional or alternative ideology. There are parties in and outside the parliament that under Shevardnadze supported orientation of the government toward NATO and the US and emphasized Georgia must break up with Russia, and they are still supporting the line. A party cannot be called oppositional in case it reveals just insignificant criticism in the address the current political line.
The political expert predicts three scenarios for development of the situation in Georgia, the country which economy is obviously collapsed and the population is poor.
The events in Georgia may develop according to the three scenarios. First, if the ruling regime continues the present line in the foreign policy the population will grow even poorer and social tension will be gaining force.
The second scenario may come into force in case Saakashvili and his team realize that Turkey has never been Georgia's ally and friend as Shevardnadze insisted. The ruling regime should understand that America is far, but it is more important to improve relations with CIS neighbors, Russia first of all. If the Georgian authority gets more oriented towards Russia and keeps up political contacts with Washington and Ankara then the economic situation and security of Georgia may get better.
But the third scenario is dangerous for the country: if the economic situation gets worse and worse this may provoke a wave of social disorders and the opposition will seize this opportunity. This will entail another revolution and a new government prepared by Americans. But in a year or two, a new coup is not ruled out. This scenario will come into force when Americans see that Saakashvili no longer enjoys people's confidence. Americans have several times applied the technology of coups in all banana republics. It seems that the third scenario is highly likely to come into effect in Georgia.