United Nations has published a long-term forecast to determine Earth’s population change in the next 300 years. The report has been created specifically for environmentalists and for experts to calculate future political strategies.
According to the forecast, if Russia’s birth rate remains the same as today, the country’s population will most likely decrease from 145,612 (in 2000) to 1,170 million by 2300. The document notes that the overall birth rate coefficient in Russia is 1,25 (1995-2000). Most optimistic coefficient however is 2,35. On the average, if a woman delivers two children, Russian population will decrease to 91,647million people in 300 years.
However, Russians will live longer. Expected life span of a Russian male will in fact increase from 60 years during 1995-200, up to 95 years from 2295-2300. Similarly, women’s life span will increase from 73 up to 98 years. The average age in the country will be 47 instead of 37 years.
Based on the amount of people, Russia will most likely shift from its 6th place in 2000 to 20th in 2300.
In general, UN reports that in case today’s birth rate stays on the same level, the Earth’s population will reach 134 trillion people in 300 years. At the same time, the report informs that there is practically no way of this happening. Most likely, total amount of the planet’s population will barely reach 9 billion in the course of 300 years. Such forecast will only be true if one woman will give birth to two kids on the average. However, taking into account the overall increase in people’s life span, such criterion will most likely to increase.
Today, there are 6,3 billion people on Earth.
Despite the increase of population on the planet, the average life span of people will significantly increase. A number of 60year olds will increase from 10% up to 38% and those at age 80 or older will increase from 1% up to 17%.
According to the UN forecast, about a half of world’s population will live in Africa, India, China, and USA, reports RBC.