Author`s name Alexander Shtorm

Is Russia going to declare war on Turkey?

Russia does not need to get involved in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russian politicians should ensure only Russian interests.

There can be only one big war in the region - the war between Russia and Turkey.

According to Andrei Perla, an observer with TsarGrad, hundreds of men stand in lines at the military registration and enlistment offices in Armenia, waiting in line to go to war.

It is worth noting that the Armenians living as diasporas outnumber the Armenians residing in Armenia.

  • Today, three million Armenians live in Russia.
  • Approximately 1 million Armenians live in France and they enjoy enormous political influence there.
  • About half a million Armenians live in the United States, and their influence is very conspicuous there among other diasporas too.

This conflict will not remain local anyway: Turkey, Russia and France have already joined this story.

Armenia and Russia are bound by allied obligations. There is a Russian military base in Armenia, and Armenia is a member of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and the EAEU (European-Asian Economic Union).

In turn, Azerbaijan is undoubtedly Russia's economic partner, but Turkey's military ally at the same time.

Russian political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov wrote:

"Everyone was not ready to cover the conflict, but  not Turkish news agencies that were "attacked" by the Armenians right in the morning ... One should not think that the conflict is going to end when Azerbaijan regains sovereignty over the regions around Karabakh or over all of Karabakh."

Nobody even concealed that Azerbaijan sees Armenia as a terrorist state. Over the past 20 years, traces of Armenian architecture or history would be systematically destroyed in Nakhichevan, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Many believe that there is no real danger of a new Russian-Turkish war to break out, but Russia cannot just sit back and enjoy the battle of gladiators.

What should Russia do?

Russia should maintain the status of an observer and guarantor of peace, even though it is going to be fragile peace. The conflict is already happening, and one needs to keep it local.

Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO, said that "the current escalation comes as a direct consequence of frozen negotiations."

Russia does not need this conflict at all, no one will say 'thanks' anyway.

If Russia has to take part in hostilities, it is obvious that Russia is not going to find itself on the same side with Turkey. This will entail irreversible consequences.